The Presidential Administration is actively preparing for the presidential election. At present, the potential campaign strategies are being discussed, personnel is being recruited to the central headquarters, political scientists’ and VIP agitators’ groups are being formed, closed sociological surveys and focus groups are being conducted. However, full deployment of pre-election infrastructure will not take place until the President’s team solves three key problems. The first one is the formation of a new Central Election Commission, the second one is the definition of the parameters of cooperation with the People’s Front, and third one is, the financing of the election campaign.
He Who Counts Wins
The primary task of the Presidential Administration is to update the Central Election Commission (CEC). According to the statement signed by the President on January 23, new CEC will conform of 6 members of the BPP (Block of Petro Poroshenko) quota, 3 representatives from the PF (People’s Front), 1 representative of each the RPL (Radical Party of Liachko), the Samopomich, the “People’s Will” and the “Renaissance” groups. The factions of the Opposition Bloc and “Batkivshchina” were not included in the statement.
foto ukrinform
The new CEC head will most likely be Svitlana Kustova or Olga Zheltova from the pro-presidential party “BPP Solidarity”. Svitlana Kustova is considered the protégé of Igor Kononenko and Olexandr Granovsky, whereas Olga Zheltova is the creature of Boris Lozhkin. The position of the CEC secretary will go to the PF (the acting Deputy Minister of Justice – Natalia Bernatska-Sevastyanova claims a position). Thus, if the Presidential statement for the renewal of the CEC does not undergo dramatic changes, the BPP, together with the NF, will control 9 members of the CEC out of 13. In fact they will control even 11 members of the CEC along with its satellites from the “People’s Will” and the “Renaissance” groups.
Absolute control over the CEC will help Poroshenko’s team promptly respond and solve a number of technical problems arising during the election process, and most importantly, when counting votes. The experience of previous presidential and parliamentary campaigns (2007, 2010, 2012, 2014) shows that the final result may be adjusted to 0.5-1.5% at the level of the CEC.
People’s Front – “suitcase without a handle”
Petro Poroshenko has not yet made a political decision regarding further cooperation with the People’s Front: should this be a 100% union with the beneficiaries of the PF, the search for compromises with its individual shareholders, or the complete neglect of the PF. Each solution has many risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses.
Currently, the main political shareholders of the People’s Front are: Arsen Avakov (controls about 30 members), Oleksandr Turchynov (controls about 15 members), ArseniyYatsenyuk (15 members), Serhii Pashynskiy (8-10 members), Andrii Parubiy (5 members).
In fact, the Presidential Administration has already reached an agreement with Oleksandr Turchynov and Andrii Parubiy. Serhii Pashynskyi is ready to merge with the BPP under the condition of the establishment of full control over the concerns of the military-industrial complex and “Ukroboronprom”. However, Poroshenko is not ready to lose control of military orders and arms trafficking. Another important problem for the Presidential Administration is the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov. The president’s team understands that winning an election campaign without control over the Ministry of Internal Affairs is very problematic. Arsen Avakov in his turn demonstrates his political significance from time to time, namely, his power capabilities and tools for controlling street protests, e.g. by the march “National squads” (power structure of the “National Corps”) in Kyiv, or participation in the Cherkasy city council session.
For a long time, Yatsenyuk and Avakov tried to push through the political reform, which provided for significant cuts in the powers of the president. However, there is not much time left to pass this decision, and Petro Poroshenko himself is convinced that he will convincingly win the presidential race from any opponent. He will return to the issue of political reform after 2020.
Leaders of the PF offer Petro Poroshenko to unite the PF and BPP into a single party, which would divide the electoral list 50% by 50%. However, it is unlikely that such an option will be supported in the presidential environment, since the electoral list will be short, and it will not be desirable to share it with the PF.
Turchynov as the head of the Presidential Election Headquarters
According to available information, Oleksandr Turchynov was invited to head the Central Election Headquarters. The current Secretary of the National Security Council is trusted by the President since he is an equidistant player from the competing groups of influence within the presidential team, has an extensive experience in party organizational work and knows all the weak spots of the main opponent – Yulia Tymoshenko.
Turchynov as well understands that his further career growth is limited by Yatsenyuk’s high anti-rating, who has very vague political perspectives. Therefore, successful work as the head of the Central Election Headquarters of Petro Poroshenko may open wide career opportunities for Turchynov. For example, in 2019, he may lead the BPP’s election list, claim the position of the speaker of parliament or even the post of Prime Minister in the new government. In addition, Turchynov, as one of the informal leaders of the PF, may drag into the president’s team a significant portion of the party’s assets and regional business that followed him from the “Batkivshchyna” Party to the “People’s Front” in early 2014.