Political competition for Kyiv: analysis of 5 groups of influence in the “Sluha Narodu”

The struggle for control over Kyiv exacerbates in Zelenskyi’s team. In 2019, the city had a record budget of over UAH 58 billion (the 2020 budget is planned to reach UAH 65 billion). Control over Kyiv utility companies (metropolitan, advertising, transport, parking, construction of houses, roads and bridges, landscaping, renovation of premises, purchases and permits, Read more about Political competition for Kyiv: analysis of 5 groups of influence in the “Sluha Narodu”[…]

Ukrainian nationalist groups: analysis of players and their impact on political competition

On October 14, 2014, a March of Nationalists testified that radical forces in Ukraine could organize themselves and exert political pressure on the authorities. In general, the electoral positions of the radical forces and nationalist parties are very weak. However, despite small number and disparity, radicals and opponents of Zelenskyi’s peace initiatives are being very Read more about Ukrainian nationalist groups: analysis of players and their impact on political competition[…]

New Government of Oleksiy Honcharuk: risks, opportunities and major groups of influence

The new government of Oleksiy Honcharuk shall address a number of complex political and economic issues. First, it has to ensure high GDP growth and increase investment attractiveness. Second, carry out structural reforms in the agricultural, energy and social sectors. Apart from unpopular decisions, it will be necessary to fulfil the President’s populist demands – Read more about New Government of Oleksiy Honcharuk: risks, opportunities and major groups of influence[…]

Conflict lines of Ukrainian oligarchs before the opening of a new political season

  After the parliamentary elections, political and economic contradictions began to rapidly escalate between Ukrainian oligarchs. The lack of a single arbitrator among the oligarchs and the weakness of President Zelenskyi are gradually plunging the country into the chaos of an oligarchic struggle for resources. Ihor Kolomoiskyi, Viktor Pinchuk and Arsen Avakov have the best Read more about Conflict lines of Ukrainian oligarchs before the opening of a new political season[…]

The results of the parliamentary elections held on July 21, 2019

Key points and trends: Parliamentary elections were held democratically, freely and openly. Ukraine once again succeeded in passing test on democracy. Only few majoritarian electoral districts were detected involving dirty technologies, clones, illegal agitation and single cases of bribing voters. The turnout was only 49.8% (as experts of Democracy House predicted), which is the smallest Read more about The results of the parliamentary elections held on July 21, 2019[…]

Parliamentary elections in Ukraine: forecast and political perspectives of key political players

The latest sociological polls show that five political parties will enter the Parliament, namely, “Sluha Narodu”, “Opposition Platform-For life”, “European Solidarity”, “Batkivshchyna” and “Holos”. This dynamic is unlikely to change by the end of elections. If Ihor Smeshko’s party passes to the Parliament by surprise, it still will not have a strong impact on the Read more about Parliamentary elections in Ukraine: forecast and political perspectives of key political players[…]

First steps of Volodymyr Zelenskyi: analysis of risks and opportunities for the development of the political situation

Inauguration of Volodymyr Zelenskyi took place on May 20. Now, the newly elected President officially began to fulfil his duties. The key tasks of the new President should include personnel decisions, adoption of first state decisions, dialogue with the Parliament and development of parameters for cooperation with oligarchs. Personnel policy of Volodymyr Zelenskyi There are Read more about First steps of Volodymyr Zelenskyi: analysis of risks and opportunities for the development of the political situation[…]

Results of the first round of the presidential election held on March 31, 2019

The Central Election Commission has counted almost 94% of official protocols, according to which Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi entered to the second round. In general, the election was transparent and democratic. In this issue, we analyse the main results of the first round of presidential election. Petro Poroshenko gained almost 16% of the vote, Read more about Results of the first round of the presidential election held on March 31, 2019[…]

Technical presidential candidates in Ukraine: who works for whom?

On March 8, 2019, the Central Election Commission approved the final list of 39 presidential candidates to be printed in the ballots. The 2019 Presidential election beat the record in terms of participation and involvement of “technical candidates” for presidency. The so-called “technical candidates” make up more than half of the total number of participants Read more about Technical presidential candidates in Ukraine: who works for whom?[…]

Analysis of the main conflicts involving the President in 2014-2019

In May 2014, Petro Poroshenko won the presidential election in the first round with almost 55% of the vote, for the first time in the newest history of Ukraine. In June 2014, at the time of the inauguration, Poroshenko enjoyed a record-breaking confidence of almost 75% of citizens. However, a number of high-profile corruption scandals, Read more about Analysis of the main conflicts involving the President in 2014-2019[…]

Prospects of Oleg Lyashko in 2019: a future parliamentary speaker or a political outcast?

Presidential elections 2019 are crucial for Oleg Lyashko and his sponsor Rinat Akhmetov. If Lyashko overcomes the 5% barrier and gets into the top five of the race, it will open up new financial and political opportunities for the Radical Party. No matter who wins the presidential and parliamentary elections, Oleg Lyashko will be a Read more about Prospects of Oleg Lyashko in 2019: a future parliamentary speaker or a political outcast?[…]

Oligarchs and pro-Russian forces: sponsors and beneficiaries

Introduction of the Martial Law in Ukraine has changed the political agenda and may mobilize Russian-speaking voters in the South and East of Ukraine. According to sociologists, their share in the overall structure of voters is at least 30%, which is a serious electoral threshold for the oligarchs. Such a voter reacts sensitively to ideological Read more about Oligarchs and pro-Russian forces: sponsors and beneficiaries[…]