Results of the first round of the presidential election held on March 31, 2019

The Central Election Commission has counted almost 94% of official protocols, according to which Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi entered to the second round. In general, the election was transparent and democratic. In this issue, we analyse the main results of the first round of presidential election. Petro Poroshenko gained almost 16% of the vote, Read more about Results of the first round of the presidential election held on March 31, 2019[…]

Technical presidential candidates in Ukraine: who works for whom?

On March 8, 2019, the Central Election Commission approved the final list of 39 presidential candidates to be printed in the ballots. The 2019 Presidential election beat the record in terms of participation and involvement of “technical candidates” for presidency. The so-called “technical candidates” make up more than half of the total number of participants Read more about Technical presidential candidates in Ukraine: who works for whom?[…]

Prospects of Oleg Lyashko in 2019: a future parliamentary speaker or a political outcast?

Presidential elections 2019 are crucial for Oleg Lyashko and his sponsor Rinat Akhmetov. If Lyashko overcomes the 5% barrier and gets into the top five of the race, it will open up new financial and political opportunities for the Radical Party. No matter who wins the presidential and parliamentary elections, Oleg Lyashko will be a Read more about Prospects of Oleg Lyashko in 2019: a future parliamentary speaker or a political outcast?[…]

Oligarchs and pro-Russian forces: sponsors and beneficiaries

Introduction of the Martial Law in Ukraine has changed the political agenda and may mobilize Russian-speaking voters in the South and East of Ukraine. According to sociologists, their share in the overall structure of voters is at least 30%, which is a serious electoral threshold for the oligarchs. Such a voter reacts sensitively to ideological Read more about Oligarchs and pro-Russian forces: sponsors and beneficiaries[…]

Volodymyr Zelenskyi: how the anti-system candidate will influence on election chessboard

At the end of October, during his concert, Volodymyr Zelenskyi publicly announced his intentions to participate in the presidential election. The statement was made in the traditional humorous format; however, it was taken seriously in political circles and is considered the unofficial start of the “Servant of the People” project campaign. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is the Read more about Volodymyr Zelenskyi: how the anti-system candidate will influence on election chessboard[…]

Analysis of political influence groups in the liberal camp: Why a single coalition is impossible?

The presence of hidden oligarchic interests, various sources of funding, excessive political ambitions, mutual distrust among leaders make it impossible to form a coalition of liberal forces and nominate a single presidential candidate. At the moment, it is possible to distinguish 6 interest groups that form and define the agenda in the liberal segment. These Read more about Analysis of political influence groups in the liberal camp: Why a single coalition is impossible?[…]

Crisis in “Samopomich”: why the “party-franchise” decays?

The “Samopomich” party was perceived the institutional and electoral core for a long time. Smaller players such as “Civic Position”, “Democratic Alliance”, “Movement of New Forces”, “People’s Power”, “Wave” and others could unite around the party.   In the early parliamentary elections in 2014, “Samopomich” of Andrii Sadovyi received almost 11% of the vote, and Read more about Crisis in “Samopomich”: why the “party-franchise” decays?[…]

Creation of the Unified Ukrainian Orthodox Church: who wins and who loses?

In Ukrainian church and political circles, it is expected that Tomos will be proclaimed on the eve of the Feast of Intercessionon on October 14. In this regard, the missionaries of the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew Archbishop Daniel from the United States and Bishop Hilarion of Edmonton from Canada arrived in Kyiv for preparing for the Read more about Creation of the Unified Ukrainian Orthodox Church: who wins and who loses?[…]

Following the Anti-corruption Court: Possible scenarios for political developments

Formally, legal terms for the dissolution of the Parliament in order to hold elections in the fall of 2018 expire in June. In a week, the parameters of political competition and conditions for conducting a presidential campaign in the camp of Poroshenko will be determined. On June 18-22, the Parliament will hold the final session, Read more about Following the Anti-corruption Court: Possible scenarios for political developments[…]

Tensions between President and Prime Minister: Current Developments and Possible Risks 

At the end of June, the political future of the prime minister will be decided in parliament. Groysman might maintain his position and stay there until the 2019 presidential election. However, if Groysman does not support Poroshenko and continues the confrontation with the President, he will end up with resignation and a number of criminal Read more about Tensions between President and Prime Minister: Current Developments and Possible Risks […]

Roman Bezsmertnyi claims the mantle of Ukrainian Macron

Roman Bezsmertnyi who has been a well-known politician and party activist since the Orange Revolution is one of potential presidential candidates in Ukraine. Bezsmertnyi actively conducts media campaign and promotes his messages in order to increase his visibility. He also started establishing analytical groups and small headquarters in several regional centres. The politician forms his Read more about Roman Bezsmertnyi claims the mantle of Ukrainian Macron[…]