The attack on Ukrainian warships and the arrest of Ukrainian navy sailors stepped up public and political discussions on the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia. If Ukraine takes such a decisive step, the country may gain some political advantages, though it may risk of losing an already limited access to Ukrainian citizens who for Read more about Severance of diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Russia: pros and cons[…]

  After the murder of “DPR Head” Alexander Zakharchenko Russia stepped up a preparation for elections on the occupied territories in contravention of the Minsk agreements. By means of these “elections”, Russia seeks to legitimize new leaders of “DPR” and “LPR” who are not associated in the Ukrainian popular consciousness with war crimes. The conduct Read more about How “elections” in ORDLO may influence on the peace process[…]

Construction of the Kerch Bridge and obstruction of navigation in the Sea of Azov hit Ukraine’s economy and increase social tensions in coastal areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. In response, Ukraine seeks to protect navigation in the Sea of Azov by means of establishing military presence, as well as hopes to bring Russia to Read more about Rising tensions in the Sea of Azov: Possible risks and scenarios[…]

The murder of “DPR Head” Alexander Zakharchenko shows that there are conflicts in the occupied territories which occur between various criminal groups and their Russian supervisors. Liquidation of Zakharchenko is most likely to speed up staff changes in the leadership of DPR/LPR in favour of persons who are considered more loyal in the Kremlin and Read more about What is next after Zakharchenko’s murder: possible scenarios and risks[…]

 Oleh Sentsov’s hunger strike and Roman Sushchenko’s sentence have drawn much international attention to Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages” ahead of the World Cup. Ukrainian citizens put behind the bars in Russia and in the occupied Crimea have become a convenient means of Kremlins’ political pressure who binds their release with Ukraine’s concessions in conflict settlement in Read more about Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages”: political bargains and chances of release[…]

In April 2018 Arsen Avakov announced his peace plan which provides for a step-by-step return of certain districts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions (ORDLO). Currently, Avakov’s plan is a raw vision of the reintegration of ORDLO which, despite few advantages, does not take into account important security, economic and other details. Nevertheless, Avakov may use Read more about Avakov Peace Plan: Good Intentions or Political Ambitions?[…]

On May 8, 2018, Donald Trump made a decision which many world leaders had been scary of. Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, claiming that this agreement did not manage to stop Tehran from missile tests and to diminish its involvement in regional conflicts. The U.S. President also has Read more about Who benefits from breaking down the Iran nuclear deal?[…]

Various qualifications of “DPR” and “LPR” demonstrate that Ukraine has an inconsistent state policy toward conflict resolution in Donbas. Such contradictions complicate the protection of Ukraine’s national interests in the international arena as they have an impact on interpretation of the situation in Donbas. Ultimately, a newly adopted Donbas De-occupation law becomes a first document Read more about Who Are “DPR” and “LPR”: Terrorists, Separatists or Occupants? The Problem of Definition[…]

International arbitrations are among instruments of Ukraine’s policy towards de-occupation of Crimea. In particularly, on February 19, 2018 Ukraine filed its memorial in arbitration proceedings against Russia under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which states that Russia violated Ukraine’s rights in its own maritime zones in the Black Sea, Read more about Ukraine Struggles with Russia over Crimean Waters[…]

The Kremlin argues its critics are insane The Russian government’s last line of defense against its critics is that they are mentally unstable. Sometimes, this is its only line of defense. Since Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014 in a move that a wide majority of the international community rejected as illegal, the Kremlin has tried to Read more about #PutinAtWar: How Russia Weaponized “Russophobia”[…]

The Donbas de–occupation law is a first legislative document, which defines Ukraine’s state policy regarding conflict resolution. Its adoption will have important domestic and foreign policy consequences in the short run. In particular, the new law strengthens powers of military servants in Donbas without introducing martial law and draws Ukraine’s “red lines” on conflict resolution. Read more about Adoption of the Donbas De-occupation law: Strengths and Weaknesses[…]