Rising tensions in the Sea of Azov: Possible risks and scenarios

Construction of the Kerch Bridge and obstruction of navigation in the Sea of Azov hit Ukraine’s economy and increase social tensions in coastal areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. In response, Ukraine seeks to protect navigation in the Sea of Azov by means of establishing military presence, as well as hopes to bring Russia to Read more about Rising tensions in the Sea of Azov: Possible risks and scenarios[…]

What is next after Zakharchenko’s murder: possible scenarios and risks

The murder of “DPR Head” Alexander Zakharchenko shows that there are conflicts in the occupied territories which occur between various criminal groups and their Russian supervisors. Liquidation of Zakharchenko is most likely to speed up staff changes in the leadership of DPR/LPR in favour of persons who are considered more loyal in the Kremlin and Read more about What is next after Zakharchenko’s murder: possible scenarios and risks[…]

Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages”: political bargains and chances of release

 Oleh Sentsov’s hunger strike and Roman Sushchenko’s sentence have drawn much international attention to Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages” ahead of the World Cup. Ukrainian citizens put behind the bars in Russia and in the occupied Crimea have become a convenient means of Kremlins’ political pressure who binds their release with Ukraine’s concessions in conflict settlement in Read more about Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages”: political bargains and chances of release[…]

Avakov Peace Plan: Good Intentions or Political Ambitions?

In April 2018 Arsen Avakov announced his peace plan which provides for a step-by-step return of certain districts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions (ORDLO). Currently, Avakov’s plan is a raw vision of the reintegration of ORDLO which, despite few advantages, does not take into account important security, economic and other details. Nevertheless, Avakov may use Read more about Avakov Peace Plan: Good Intentions or Political Ambitions?[…]

Who benefits from breaking down the Iran nuclear deal?

On May 8, 2018, Donald Trump made a decision which many world leaders had been scary of. Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, claiming that this agreement did not manage to stop Tehran from missile tests and to diminish its involvement in regional conflicts. The U.S. President also has Read more about Who benefits from breaking down the Iran nuclear deal?[…]

Who Are “DPR” and “LPR”: Terrorists, Separatists or Occupants? The Problem of Definition

Various qualifications of “DPR” and “LPR” demonstrate that Ukraine has an inconsistent state policy toward conflict resolution in Donbas. Such contradictions complicate the protection of Ukraine’s national interests in the international arena as they have an impact on interpretation of the situation in Donbas. Ultimately, a newly adopted Donbas De-occupation law becomes a first document Read more about Who Are “DPR” and “LPR”: Terrorists, Separatists or Occupants? The Problem of Definition[…]

Ukraine Struggles with Russia over Crimean Waters

International arbitrations are among instruments of Ukraine’s policy towards de-occupation of Crimea. In particularly, on February 19, 2018 Ukraine filed its memorial in arbitration proceedings against Russia under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which states that Russia violated Ukraine’s rights in its own maritime zones in the Black Sea, Read more about Ukraine Struggles with Russia over Crimean Waters[…]

#PutinAtWar: How Russia Weaponized “Russophobia”

The Kremlin argues its critics are insane The Russian government’s last line of defense against its critics is that they are mentally unstable. Sometimes, this is its only line of defense. Since Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014 in a move that a wide majority of the international community rejected as illegal, the Kremlin has tried to Read more about #PutinAtWar: How Russia Weaponized “Russophobia”[…]

#MinskMonitor: Russia Fires Across the Border

Ukrainian border guards fired at north of Luhansk On February 8, the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Press Center reported that Russian forces fired “provocation” shots towards Ukrainian border guards stationed north of Luhansk. There were no injuries from the incident, and the Ukrainian border guards did not return fire. A map provided by the Ukrainian Embassy to the Read more about #MinskMonitor: Russia Fires Across the Border[…]

Adoption of the Donbas De-occupation law: Strengths and Weaknesses

The Donbas de–occupation law is a first legislative document, which defines Ukraine’s state policy regarding conflict resolution. Its adoption will have important domestic and foreign policy consequences in the short run. In particular, the new law strengthens powers of military servants in Donbas without introducing martial law and draws Ukraine’s “red lines” on conflict resolution. Read more about Adoption of the Donbas De-occupation law: Strengths and Weaknesses[…]

#PutinAtWar: Crimea Under the Russian Missile Dome

A quick look into the latest Russian S-400 air-defense system deployment in Crimea The Russian military deployed a second battalion of S-400 “Triumph” air-defense systems in Crimean Peninsula. The first battalion was deployed to Crimea in Spring 2017, and now the military claimed to cover the whole Crimean Peninsula. These systems are capable of destroying aircraft, drones, and Read more about #PutinAtWar: Crimea Under the Russian Missile Dome[…]

#MinskMonitor: Bulgarian Lethal Arms Exports to Ukraine

Weapons found on both sides of the Donbas front lines The @DFRLab recently reported on the commercial sale of American-made rocket-propelled grenade launchers to Ukraine, which occurred with the approval of the U.S. Departments of Defense and State. With so much international attention focused on the delivery of lethal American aid to Ukraine, we investigated how other Read more about #MinskMonitor: Bulgarian Lethal Arms Exports to Ukraine[…]