Donbas issue in the Ukrainian presidential campaign

The conflict in Donbas is among major problems facing Ukrainian society and priority issues of the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election. Various presidential candidates pay different attention to the Donbas issue. Nevertheless, an analysis of election programs of the main presidential candidates demonstrates that popular peace proposals include the negotiations in the Budapest format, the UN Read more about Donbas issue in the Ukrainian presidential campaign[…]

Ukraine v. Russia: analysis of inter-state cases in international courts

Ukraine uses international courts as one of the instruments to counter Russia’s aggression. In 2014-2019, Ukraine brought complaints against Russia before the European Court of Human Rights, the International Court of Justice, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, as well as accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court over the Euromaidan protests, the events in Read more about Ukraine v. Russia: analysis of inter-state cases in international courts[…]

Crimean issue in the presidential election 2019

Position on Crimea determines the internal legitimacy of political forces in Ukraine. However, the return of the peninsula directly concerns a rather narrow stratum of voters in Ukraine. As a result, the de-occupation of Crimea is out of the priority issues of the presidential campaign 2019 being left on the periphery of the presidential election Read more about Crimean issue in the presidential election 2019[…]

Severance of diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Russia: pros and cons

The attack on Ukrainian warships and the arrest of Ukrainian navy sailors stepped up public and political discussions on the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia. If Ukraine takes such a decisive step, the country may gain some political advantages, though it may risk of losing an already limited access to Ukrainian citizens who for Read more about Severance of diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Russia: pros and cons[…]

Can NATO warships help Ukraine?

Amid the Kerch crisis, Petro Poroshenko expressed hope that NATO countries are ready to relocate some of their warships to the Sea of Azov in order to restore the safety of navigation. However, such hopes may mislead Ukrainian public and international partners. Foremost, it is about international legal obstacles to NATO naval presence caused by the Read more about Can NATO warships help Ukraine?[…]

How “elections” in ORDLO may influence on the peace process

  After the murder of “DPR Head” Alexander Zakharchenko Russia stepped up a preparation for elections on the occupied territories in contravention of the Minsk agreements. By means of these “elections”, Russia seeks to legitimize new leaders of “DPR” and “LPR” who are not associated in the Ukrainian popular consciousness with war crimes. The conduct Read more about How “elections” in ORDLO may influence on the peace process[…]

Rising tensions in the Sea of Azov: Possible risks and scenarios

Construction of the Kerch Bridge and obstruction of navigation in the Sea of Azov hit Ukraine’s economy and increase social tensions in coastal areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. In response, Ukraine seeks to protect navigation in the Sea of Azov by means of establishing military presence, as well as hopes to bring Russia to Read more about Rising tensions in the Sea of Azov: Possible risks and scenarios[…]

What is next after Zakharchenko’s murder: possible scenarios and risks

The murder of “DPR Head” Alexander Zakharchenko shows that there are conflicts in the occupied territories which occur between various criminal groups and their Russian supervisors. Liquidation of Zakharchenko is most likely to speed up staff changes in the leadership of DPR/LPR in favour of persons who are considered more loyal in the Kremlin and Read more about What is next after Zakharchenko’s murder: possible scenarios and risks[…]

Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages”: political bargains and chances of release

 Oleh Sentsov’s hunger strike and Roman Sushchenko’s sentence have drawn much international attention to Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages” ahead of the World Cup. Ukrainian citizens put behind the bars in Russia and in the occupied Crimea have become a convenient means of Kremlins’ political pressure who binds their release with Ukraine’s concessions in conflict settlement in Read more about Ukrainian “Kremlin’s hostages”: political bargains and chances of release[…]

Avakov Peace Plan: Good Intentions or Political Ambitions?

In April 2018 Arsen Avakov announced his peace plan which provides for a step-by-step return of certain districts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions (ORDLO). Currently, Avakov’s plan is a raw vision of the reintegration of ORDLO which, despite few advantages, does not take into account important security, economic and other details. Nevertheless, Avakov may use Read more about Avakov Peace Plan: Good Intentions or Political Ambitions?[…]

Who benefits from breaking down the Iran nuclear deal?

On May 8, 2018, Donald Trump made a decision which many world leaders had been scary of. Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, claiming that this agreement did not manage to stop Tehran from missile tests and to diminish its involvement in regional conflicts. The U.S. President also has Read more about Who benefits from breaking down the Iran nuclear deal?[…]

Who Are “DPR” and “LPR”: Terrorists, Separatists or Occupants? The Problem of Definition

Various qualifications of “DPR” and “LPR” demonstrate that Ukraine has an inconsistent state policy toward conflict resolution in Donbas. Such contradictions complicate the protection of Ukraine’s national interests in the international arena as they have an impact on interpretation of the situation in Donbas. Ultimately, a newly adopted Donbas De-occupation law becomes a first document Read more about Who Are “DPR” and “LPR”: Terrorists, Separatists or Occupants? The Problem of Definition[…]