Rising tensions in the Sea of Azov: Possible risks and scenarios

Construction of the Kerch Bridge and obstruction of navigation in the Sea of Azov hit Ukraine’s economy and increase social tensions in coastal areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. In response, Ukraine seeks to protect navigation in the Sea of Azov by means of establishing military presence, as well as hopes to bring Russia to Read more about Rising tensions in the Sea of Azov: Possible risks and scenarios[…]

Ukraine-Russia trade ties: Trends and forecasts

Russian aggression in the East of Ukraine has been going on for four years already, but despite this, Russia still remains the main trading partner of Ukraine. During the period 2013-2016, the trade turnover between Ukraine and the Russian Federation decreased by 4.4 times. However, in 2017 there was a revival of trade relations: the Read more about Ukraine-Russia trade ties: Trends and forecasts[…]

Analysis of political influence groups in the liberal camp: Why a single coalition is impossible?

The presence of hidden oligarchic interests, various sources of funding, excessive political ambitions, mutual distrust among leaders make it impossible to form a coalition of liberal forces and nominate a single presidential candidate. At the moment, it is possible to distinguish 6 interest groups that form and define the agenda in the liberal segment. These Read more about Analysis of political influence groups in the liberal camp: Why a single coalition is impossible?[…]

New Economic Course by Tymoshenko?

On September 21 in Kyiv, Yuliia Tymoshenko presented a program of economic reforms called “New Economic Course” developed by the team of experts under her auspices. The key ideas declared in the New Economic Course include transition from the oligarchic raw material system to the social market economy of innovation type, struggle against monopolies, the Read more about New Economic Course by Tymoshenko?[…]

Crisis in “Samopomich”: why the “party-franchise” decays?

The “Samopomich” party was perceived the institutional and electoral core for a long time. Smaller players such as “Civic Position”, “Democratic Alliance”, “Movement of New Forces”, “People’s Power”, “Wave” and others could unite around the party.   In the early parliamentary elections in 2014, “Samopomich” of Andrii Sadovyi received almost 11% of the vote, and Read more about Crisis in “Samopomich”: why the “party-franchise” decays?[…]

What is next after Zakharchenko’s murder: possible scenarios and risks

The murder of “DPR Head” Alexander Zakharchenko shows that there are conflicts in the occupied territories which occur between various criminal groups and their Russian supervisors. Liquidation of Zakharchenko is most likely to speed up staff changes in the leadership of DPR/LPR in favour of persons who are considered more loyal in the Kremlin and Read more about What is next after Zakharchenko’s murder: possible scenarios and risks[…]

Round timber export ban: historical background and positions of stakeholders

In early September, the Parliament lifted a moratorium on the export of logs, which has been in operation since 2015. The moratorium has caused the deterioration of relations with the EU and, at some point, has become a reason for not receiving Ukraine a tranche of macro-financial assistance. Officially, the moratorium is aimed at combating Read more about Round timber export ban: historical background and positions of stakeholders[…]

Creation of the Unified Ukrainian Orthodox Church: who wins and who loses?

In Ukrainian church and political circles, it is expected that Tomos will be proclaimed on the eve of the Feast of Intercessionon on October 14. In this regard, the missionaries of the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew Archbishop Daniel from the United States and Bishop Hilarion of Edmonton from Canada arrived in Kyiv for preparing for the Read more about Creation of the Unified Ukrainian Orthodox Church: who wins and who loses?[…]