Democracy House presented newest issue of U at Glace

SUMMARY

Economy at Glance

Banking Sector Reform 2014-2018: Main Trends and Risks

Since the beginning of 2014, the banking system of Ukraine has experienced one of the strongest crises in its history. The cumulative losses due to the crisis in the banking sector are estimated at the level of 40% of GDP as of the beginning of 2018.
As a result of the purges of the banking system, since 2014, the number of banks has decreased from 180 to 82. As a result of the “bankruptcy”, most of the oligarchs got rid of banks that played a key element in the structure of their FIGs.
Nationalization of PrivatBank became a significant test for the NBU. As a result of the nationalization of the largest commercial bank, the state’s share in the banking sector has exceeded 50%, which is a significant systemic risk for the banking system.
The banking sector is undergoing system transformations. One of the key tasks is the construction of risk-oriented bank supervision and the restoration of lending to the real sector.

Policy at Glance

Tensions between President and Prime Minister: Current Developments and Possible Risks

The most serious controversies between Volodymyr Groysman and presidential circles concern privatization and control over the State Fiscal Service.
If Groysman does not support Petro Poroshenko and continues the confrontation with the president, he will probably end up with resignation and a number of criminal cases.
At the same time, Groysman may develop an independent political project or create a new party in collaboration with Yatsenyuk.

Main Trends in Ukrainian Nationalist Organizations

Despite a large number of far-right organizations in Ukraine, only few of them receive funding and carry out some activities. Far-right organizations have been active instruments of political and business competition.
As the election campaign in Ukraine approaches, there will be an increasing demand for political services of far-right movements.

Conflict Resolution at Glance

Avakov Peace Plan: Good Intentions or Political Ambitions?

Arsen Avakov proposes a step-by-step return of small temporarily occupied territories in Donbas.
Avakov peace plan has some political advantages but it is weak in security and economic components.
Avakov announced his peace plan less than a year before the presidential elections in order to demonstrate that he can be both Petro Poroshenko’s political rival and situational partner whose interests should not be disregarded.